What does a risk score of 68% mean? How to read the atlas
A total risk of 68% sounds alarming — but it's not a chance of disaster. We explain honestly how the scores are calculated, what they do and don't tell you, and why the live map is ultimately what matters.
If you see in the atlas that a popular destination has a total risk of 68%, you might be alarmed. Does that mean there's a two-in-three chance your holiday will be ruined? No. That's not how it works, and it's important we're honest about that.
What the score actually means
The risk score is an indicative estimate, not a prediction. It shows how vulnerable a region is to natural hazards during peak season, based on what has happened in recent years. Specifically: what is the likelihood that a two-week stay in the peak months will be noticeably disrupted — by smoke haze, a heat wave, flooding, or in the worst case, evacuation.
A high score means 'stay alert and plan wisely', not 'a disaster will happen here'. Most people visiting a 68%-destination have a perfectly fine holiday.
How the figures are calculated
Each hazard — wildfire, heat, flooding, storms, and seismic/volcanic activity — gets its own score from 0 to 100. These are based on the historical frequency and scale of events in the period 2017–2025 (sources such as EFFIS/Copernicus, disaster databases and national weather services), plus observed trends.
The total risk is not a simple sum. The dominant hazard carries the most weight; each additional hazard counts with progressively less weight. This means a destination with one serious risk isn't artificially kept low, and a destination with five minor risks isn't doubly penalised. The result is capped so no location scores 100%.
The risk levels
The colours in the atlas follow fixed thresholds:
- Low (0–9) and Moderate (10–19): little to worry about.
- Elevated (20–34): pay attention during peak season.
- High (35–49) and Very high (50+): conscious choice and planning really pay off.
Why the live map ultimately matters
The scores look backwards — at patterns and trends. For your trip, what matters is the present. That's why each profile includes a live map showing current fire danger (the FWI index from EFFIS/Copernicus) and the weather forecast. A region with a high annual score can be completely calm on your travel date — and vice versa.
Use the score to choose your destination and travel time; use the live map to decide just before you leave.
In short
The risk score is an honest tool for comparing destinations and planning consciously, not a doom prediction. It says something about vulnerability based on the past; the live map says something about now. Combine both, and always check the current situation for your destination in the atlas just before you travel.
Travel guides are level-headed background based on historical data and trends (2017–2025). They are not an official forecast. Just before departure, always check the current warnings and the live map in the atlas.